San José, CA – On Friday, November 1, the Department of Labor published its report on new job creation and unemployment for October. While the unemployment rate showed little change, the report on net new job creation came in far below what was expected and was the lowest number since the recession year of 2020.

Mainstream economists had expected about 100,000 net new jobs, less than half of Septembers gain. This estimate took into account the strike at Boeing of more than 30,000 workers, as well as the disruption of two hurricanes, Helene and Milton.

But the 12,000 net new jobs was just a fraction of economists’ estimates. Even worse, the new jobs for August and September were revised down by 112,000. The three month average for August to October was just 104,000 net new jobs, less than half of what a strong job market would create.

Another sign of weakness in the job market was the loss of almost 50,000 temp jobs. These temporary jobs are usually the first to go at the beginning of an economic slowdown.

Another sign of weakness was reported the day before, when both the number of new job listings and the number of voluntary quits fell again in the month of September. These two numbers go up with a strong economy and fall during times of economic weakness.

Presidential candidate Trump called the report a catastrophe, while the Biden administration pointed to the still low unemployment rate and the impacts of the Boeing strike and two hurricanes on the job numbers. But the fact of the matter is that the ups and downs of the business cycle are characteristic of a capitalist economy.

Since the end of World War II, the average business cycle expansion – where there is economic growth and job gains – has been five-and-a-half years. The current expansion dates to the end of the last recession in April of 2020 is now at four-and-a-half years, so it is not surprising to see signs of weakness.

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