San José, CA – On Friday, September 13, the Biden administration announced a further escalation of the U.S. trade war with China. Tariffs—taxes on imports—of electric cars from China will be increased to 100%. This is meant to protect legacy U.S. auto makers from competition from Chinese electric vehicle or EV manufactures.

San José, CA – On Wednesday, August 21, the U.S. Department of Labor released an initial estimate reducing the number of net new jobs created from April 2023 to March 2024 by 818,000, or about 28%. This is the biggest adjustment since 2009, the year after the Great Financial Crisis. The adjustment was about five times as big as previous years’ adjustments.

San José, CA – The decline in U.S. stock prices accelerated on Monday, August 5, with the broadest measure of large corporate stocks, the S&P 500, falling more than 160 points or 3%. Fears of a recession contributed to declines in stock prices around the world.

San José, CA – The latest jobs report released Friday, August 2, triggered new fears of a recession as the official unemployment rate rose to 4.3%. This pushes the three-month average unemployment rate up by more than one-half of one percent from its recent low. An increase of this size has been associated with a recession for the last 50 years.

San José, CA – On Monday, July 15, Donald Trump was officially nominated as the Republican Party candidate for president. Given his lead, albeit slim, in the polls over President Biden, it would be wise to look at Trump’s economic policies.

A central part of Trump’s economic plans is to raise tariffs, or taxes on imports. He is calling for 10% across the board and 60% for imports from China. Trump proudly calls himself “Tariff Man” and holds up President William McKinley as a role model for raising tariffs. McKinley was congressperson and president who was a strong advocate for tariffs in the late 1900s.

San José, CA – On Thursday, July 18, the weekly report on unemployment insurance showed 243,000 new claims for the week ending July 13. This was 20,000 higher than the previous week.

San José, CA – On Thursday, July 11, the Department of Labor released the most popular measure of consumer prices, showing inflation continues to decline. The overall Consumer Price Index or CPI actually declined by 0.1% in June as compared to May. The year-over-year rise, from June 2023 to June 2024 was 3%. This was the lowest inflation rate in more than three years.

San José, CA – On Friday, July 5, the Department of Labor released its monthly employment report for the month of June. While mainstream news sources such as the Associated Press described the labor market as “healthy” the report was riddled with warning signs of a weaker jobs market.

San José, CA – The February 2024 employment report released by the Department of Labor on Friday, March 8 continued to show signs of weakness. While total job creation seemed healthy, with 275,000 net new jobs reported by the survey of employers, there were significant downsides to the overall report.

San José, CA – The January 2024 jobs report was labeled “Blockbuster” by the New York Times, “Hot” by the Wall Street Journal, and “Shockingly Strong” by the Washington Post. Yet the headlines of three of the national newspapers failed to capture the weaker side of the report.