San José, CA – On July 29, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released their report on Gross Domestic Product for the second quarter of the year, April to June. GDP went down at a 0.9% annual rate. This followed a decline of 1.6% in GDP in the first three months of the year.
San José, CA – On Wednesday, November 25, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that new claims for regular state unemployment benefits increased for the second week in a row, up 30,000 to 778,000. This is the highest level in five weeks and the first time since July with back-to-back increases. Adding in the weekly new claims for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance or PUA for the self-employed and gig workers, almost 1.1 million people sought government aid in the recession.
San José, CA – On Friday, November 5 the U.S. Department of Labor released its monthly employment report for October, as President Trump faced defeat in the presidential election. The number of long-term unemployed, who have been out of work for more than six months, jumped by more than a million to outpace those recently laid off for the first time. The number of people collecting long-term unemployment under the federal Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation or PEUC, and the state Extended Benefits, rose by almost 500,000 in the week of the unemployment survey alone.
San José, CA – On Thursday, October 15, the U.S. Department of Labor reported the biggest one week increase in new claims for unemployment insurance since late July. The latest report for the week ending October 10 saw 898,000 new claims for regular state unemployment insurance, up 53,000 from the week before.
San José, CA – On Friday, October 2, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the official unemployment rate had dropped to 7.9% in September, from 8.4% in August. But of the almost one million people who left the official unemployment count, 70% stopped looking for work and did not find a job. This is because the government’s unemployment rate only counts those who are both without paid work and who are looking for work.
San José, CA – On Thursday, August 27, the latest report on unemployment insurance shows that the U.S. economy remains stuck in the worst recession since the Great Depression of the 1930s. While new claims for regular state unemployment insurance benefits did drop to a little, over 1 million for the week ending August 22, the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance or PUA for gig workers and self-employed rose the same week. Together the two stayed the same as the week before, and slightly higher than two weeks ago. One million new applications for state unemployment insurance is five times the rate at beginning of the year.
San José, CA – The U.S. stock market started October with back-to-back declines fueled by growing fears of a recession. On Tuesday, October 1, stocks fell by 1% or more following the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reporting on their Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) for September. The index fell to 47.8, showing a contraction in the manufacturing sector – any report below 50 shows manufacturing shrinking, above 50 shows growth. The August PMI report at 49.1 also showed a drop in manufacturing, the first time in three years. The September reading showed that the decline was accelerating and was the lowest level for the PMI since the end of the last recession, more than 10 years ago.
San José, CA – The New Year is starting off much the way 2018 ended: with U.S. stocks being hammered again. On Thursday, January 3, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) fell more than 600 points, the technology heavy NASDAQ fell more than 200, and the broad S&P 500 fell more than 60 points. All the averages fell more than 2% to put the year into the red.
San José, CA – Casting a shadow on the stock market are the growing number of economic statistics that point to a recession in 2019. Almost all mainstream economic forecasters expect economic growth to slow down in 2019 as the impact of the 2018 tax cuts wear off; the forecast is for 2.4% growth, about the same as in 2017. But few predict a recession.