San José, CA – On Monday, February 24, Denny’s, one of the three largest breakfast chains in the United States, announced that it would be rolling out an extra surcharge on eggs. Denny’s followed Waffle House, another large breakfast chain. Both are trying to pass along the rising costs of eggs, which are up almost 20% just since December. This is mainly because of the spreading bird flu, where quarantine measures have meant the killing more than 100 million poultry, including 20 million of chickens, just in the last three months of 2024.
San José, CA – On Friday, February 21, all the major U.S. stock indices fell. The broadest measure, the S&P 500, dropped more than 100 points. What scared the stock markets were a pair of indicators showing signs of rising inflation and a slowdown in the economy, which is commonly called stagflation.
San José, CA – On Friday, February 14, the Department of Commerce released its report on Retail Sales for January 2025. For those hoping for a strong report on Valentine’s Day, there was no love as retail sales fell 0.9%. While this report was seasonally adjusted for the fact that sales in January are typically lower than December, it is not adjusted for inflation. With inflation up 0.5% in January according to the Department of Labor’s report earlier in the week, it is likely the real, or inflation adjusted sales fell more than 1% in one month, a very weak report.
San José, CA – On Wednesday, February 12, the Department of Labor said that inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, rose in January as compared to December of 2024. The monthly increase in prices was one half of one percent, as compared to 0.3% in December. This was the highest monthly increase in prices in over a year. Compared to a year ago, prices were up 3%, but if January’s increase continued for the rest of the year, the inflation rate would be 8%.
San José, CA – On Wednesday, November 13, the Department of Labor’s monthly report on inflation showed that the increase in the Consumer Price Index, or CPI, ticked to 2.6% measured on a year-to-year basis, which smooths out monthly spikes or plunges. The so-called “core” rate of inflation, which leaves out food and energy prices (which tend to vary more than other prices month to month), was an even higher 3.3% measured year over year.
San José, CA – Average weekly earnings, adjusted for inflation, fell in July despite a drop in inflation. While average hourly wages outpaced inflation by one-tenth of one percent, or 0.1% ,in July, the average work week fell by three-tenths of one percent, or 0.3%. This meant the average weekly real earnings, which takes into account wage increases, inflation and the average number of hours worked, actually fell by two-tenths of one percent, 0.2%.
San José, CA – On Monday, July 15, Donald Trump was officially nominated as the Republican Party candidate for president. Given his lead, albeit slim, in the polls over President Biden, it would be wise to look at Trump’s economic policies.
A central part of Trump’s economic plans is to raise tariffs, or taxes on imports. He is calling for 10% across the board and 60% for imports from China. Trump proudly calls himself “Tariff Man” and holds up President William McKinley as a role model for raising tariffs. McKinley was congressperson and president who was a strong advocate for tariffs in the late 1900s.
San José, CA – On Thursday, July 11, the Department of Labor released the most popular measure of consumer prices, showing inflation continues to decline. The overall Consumer Price Index or CPI actually declined by 0.1% in June as compared to May. The year-over-year rise, from June 2023 to June 2024 was 3%. This was the lowest inflation rate in more than three years.
San José, CA – The February 2024 employment report released by the Department of Labor on Friday, March 8 continued to show signs of weakness. While total job creation seemed healthy, with 275,000 net new jobs reported by the survey of employers, there were significant downsides to the overall report.
San José, CA – On Friday, November 4, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that the unemployment rate in October rose from 3.7% from 3.5% in September. The increase was even larger for Asian Americans and Latinos, who saw their unemployment rates rise by 0.4%, twice the overall rise.
San José, CA – Inflation as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers or CPI-W has been rising this year at the fastest rate in 40 years. This high inflation continued in September, with prices measured by CPI-W up 8.5% over a year ago. Higher prices combined with fewer hours means that the purchasing power of average weekly earnings for workers fell 3.5% from a year earlier.
San José, CA – Real earnings, or workers’ wages after adjusting for inflation, had their biggest drop in 40 years last month, as prices continued to rise faster than paychecks. Real average weekly earnings, which best reflect workers’ paychecks after adjusting for changes in wages, prices and hours worked, fell 1% in June of 2022 according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Over the last year, real average weekly earnings fell 3.9% as inflation outpaced pay raises and average weekly hours fell by almost an hour.
San José, CA – With Bitcoin now down 70% from its record price in April of 2021, businesses based on cryptocurrencies have started to fold. The latest victim was Celsius, a crypto “bank” which stopped withdrawals from its accounts on Sunday, June 12. Celsius had more than $20 billion in assets at its peak in August 2021, drawing investors with yields of more than 18%. But Celsius is looking more and more like a high-tech Ponzi scheme that only lasted as long as new investors kept buying in.
Working households struggle as wages don’t keep up
San José, CA – On Friday, June 10, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that prices for workers’ families, the so-called Consumer Price Index-Wage or CPI-W rose by 9.3% as compared to prices a year ago. This rate of inflation is near a 40-year high, only exceeded by the 9.4% increase in March. The last time that prices rose so quickly was in November of 1981.
San José, CA – Gas stations, grocery stores and car dealers are not the only places people are facing sticker shock, as anyone looking to rent can tell you. Prices to rent an apartment are up around 20% over the last year.
San José, CA – On Wednesday, January 12 the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that prices of consumer goods rose 7% in 2021. This is the highest rate of inflation in 40 years. With workers’ wages only up by 4.7% last year, the purchasing power of workers’ earnings fell by more than 2%.
