Commentary

San Jose, CA – New economic data released in early January 2008 showed that the U.S. economy was on the edge of a recession in December. On Jan. 2, the Institute for Supply Management reported that the manufacturing sector shrank in December. Their index fell to 47.7 from 50.8 in November, the lowest level since April of 2003. Then on Jan. 4, the Department of Labor said that the unemployment rate rose to 5% in December, from 4.7% the month before, the biggest one-month jump since the last recession in 2001. In the same report, the Labor Department also said that only 18,000 new jobs were created in December, the weakest number since August of 2003.

San Jose, CA – In July the U.S. housing market hit new lows, with the lowest number of permits for new homes and the lowest number of construction starts in more than ten years. Then in August financial markets across the globe were shaken by the growing defaults on mortgages in the United States.

San Jose, CA – Between September of 2005 and December of 2006 permits to build new homes went down 28%, as home sales have dropped and prices have started to fall. In the last 50 years there have been seven other declines in building permits of 25% or more, and every single one has been followed by a recession, the most recent being the 1990 recession.

San Jose, CA – In May, the unemployment rate rose to 6.1%, the highest level in nine years. Businesses have cut more than two and a half million jobs since the recession began in March of 2001. This drop in jobs is the longest since the Great Depression of the 1930s. With so many of us out of work, it is taking longer and longer for the unemployed to find jobs. It now takes an average of almost five months to find work, the longest period of time in almost twenty years.