Comrades and friends,

On behalf of Freedom Road Socialist Organization, I extend our warmest greetings to all who are assembled here at the International Theoretical Conference on Economic Crises under Imperialism, and thank our hosts, the National Democratic Front of the Philippines, for organizing this important gathering.

In his great work Anti-During, Fredrick Engels made the point that freedom is the recognition of necessity. In other words, historical development is a law-governed process, and by understanding these laws, revolutionaries can be more effective in our efforts to change the world. Therein lies the great importance of a conference such as this. We have the opportunity to learn from one another and discuss some of the key features of monopoly capitalism and how it impacts the world. We do this from the perspective of bringing this system of exploitation and oppression to an end as soon as we possibly can.

The contributions to this conference address three big topics and, while this paper will address all of them, the principal focus of this paper will be the sharpening contradictions in the international financial architecture and challenges to the neoliberal model.

But before doing so, let me note the following. Many of us were here for the October 2023 Theoretical Conference on Imperialism and War, and, shortly before that conference got underway, the Palestinian resistance launched the historic Operation Al Aqsa Flood. Since that time, the Israeli occupiers and their U.S. backers have launched a genocide in Gaza. For its part, the Palestinian resistance has been resolute and steadfast, and it continues to land heavy blows. It is a movement of heroes that deserves the support and solidarity of all progressive people.

Economic crisis and the decline of U.S. imperialism

The history of capitalism is the history of periodic crises of overproduction, and these crises are rooted in the contradiction between a process of production that is social and the individual appropriation of the wealth that is created in that process by the capitalist class. Anarchy reigns in unplanned capitalist economies, where the guiding law is the hunt for the maximum rate of profits.

As Stalin said the work Economic Problems of the USSR that the most basic law of capitalism is

“…the securing of the maximum capitalist profit through the exploitation, ruin and impoverishment of the majority of the population of the given country, through the enslavement and systematic robbery of the peoples of other countries, especially backward countries, and, lastly, through wars and militarization of the national economy, which are utilized for the obtaining of the highest profits.”

U.S imperialism has been in a state of decline since the early 1970s. The periodic economic crises which have occurred in the context of that decline have altered the landscape of the productive forces in a dramatic way. One of the functions of crisis is to destroy the forces of production that are least profitable. Marx and Engels referenced this is The Communist Manifesto, stating, “In these crises a great part not only of the existing products but also of the previously created productive forces are periodically destroyed.”

The fall of the U.S steel industry illustrates this. The plurality of steel was once produced in the U.S. and in 1955 it dominated about 40% of the world market. In 1973 steel production reached its peak, but it was a colossus with feet of clay. The industry had failed to create new capacity with up-to-date technology such as basic oxygen furnaces. Japan and Europe, which had their industrial capacity destroyed during World War II, employed more advanced technologies. The economic crisis that unfolded in the 1973–75 period delivered huge blows to the U.S. centers of steel production like Gary, Indiana; Pittsburg, Pennsylvania, and Cleveland, Ohio. The following economic crisis of 1980 continued the collapse of the industry. By 2019 the U.S. was one of the largest steel importers, only producing about 5% of the world’s steel.

A look at the numbers compiled by the U.S, Bureau of Labor Statistics show similar trends for manufacturing as a whole. Since the 1970s, every crisis or contraction of the economy has resulted in a decline in manufacturing jobs. In 1979, manufacturing employment was 22% of total nonfarm jobs. It was 9% in 2019.

Some general observations can be made. U.S. imperialism has entered a period of accelerated decline and repeated periodic crises have rocked the economic base. Capitalism is not capable of real, long-term planning and it is fixated on short term gains. As a result, the composition of the economic base has been altered with manufacturing’s relative decline. The U.S. has less ability to deal with disruptions of global supply chains and would face tough going in the event of another major war.

The neoliberal model in a changing world

Since the 1980s, neoliberalism has been the dominant economic model of the capitalist world. In his important statement Neoliberalism: A Scourge on Humankind, the brilliant communist Jose Maria Sison states:

Reagan and Thatcher undertook signal actions and pushed legislation to press down the wage level, suppress the trade union and democratic rights of the working class and cut back on social spending by government. They reduced taxes on the corporations and individual members of the monopoly bourgeoisie and provided them with all the opportunities to make super profits and accumulate capital.

These opportunities were made available through the flexibilization of labor, trade and finance liberalization, privatization of public assets, anti-social deregulation, the denationalization of the economies of the underdeveloped countries, the increase of overpriced contracts in war production and guarantees and subsidies for overseas investments.

U.S.-led imperialist globalization took place in this context. Not every center of monopoly capitalism fully adopted the neoliberal model – for example in Japan, liberalization was mainly limited to the financial sector, but that was an exception.

U.S. industrial policy

The decline of U.S. imperialism and sharpening rivalry between the respective centers of monopoly capitalism present a set of genuine challenges to neoliberal, free market fundamentalism.

While it could be said that the U.S. has always had an industrial policy, that of spending vast amounts of money on arms production, the recently adopted Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) along with the CHIPS Act have a real significance. U.S. government spending on developing the semiconductor industry will top $53 billion and create the ability to produce the most advanced computer chips. Government subsidies will also underwrite energy projects and the transition to electric vehicles. A huge boom in new factory construction is now underway.

A major target of this U.S. industrial policy is the People’s Republic of China. Currently about 90% of the world’s advanced computer chips are produced in Twain, and China’s leadership has made clear that the issue of reunification can not be put off forever. Additionally, China is the world’s largest producer of electric vehicles.

Using the measure Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), which allows one to compare which commodities and services can be purchased with a given currency, the World Bank concluded that the Chinese economy was 23% larger than that of the U.S. in 2022. Looking at the sum of these statistics it’s not hard see why the U.S. has moved towards a policy of massive subsidies for key industries: it is a declining, moribund power and its domination of the world economy is coming to an end.

Trade, tariffs and the rise of protectionism

The U.S. spent a huge amount of political capital to establish the World Trade Organization in the mid-1990s. It was the continuation of the post-World War II, U.S. designed General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), which set the rules of trade in the capitalist world. At lease some of us can remember the massive 1999 protest against corporate globalization that coincided with the WTO meeting in Seattle, Washington. The U.S. is now the one stopping the dispute mechanism of the WTO from functioning.

In 2017, the Trump administration stopped appointing judges for the WTO appeal process. The Biden administration has continued that policy. So as things stand, countries that do not like WTO decisions can appeal the decisions, but there is no quorum of judges to hear the case, so nothing happens.

Likewise, the Biden administration has continued many of the Trump-era tariffs, particularly those aimed at China, and it is looking at imposing new ones. Currently the U.S. has an ongoing discussion with the European Union on limiting imports of Chinese steel. Trump, who is ahead in the election polls, is promising to put 10% tariffs on all goods entering the U.S., including those for Europe and Japan.

The U.S. also has ongoing trade disputes with Europe on a host of issues ranging from aluminum exports to American subsidies for “green” industrial production.

There are three major centers of monopoly capitalism today: the U.S., Europe, and Japan. As the decline of the U.S. picks up speed, it has less ability to occupy the center of the capitalist world’s financial architecture. A weakening U.S. has become increasingly preoccupied with the defense of its own markets at the expense of an international system of free trade, where the U.S. was the supreme rule maker.

There is a military element to all of this as well. The U.S. is preparing for a war with China, and that’s at the core of the talk about “delinking” the U.S. and Chinese economies. The U.S. proxy war in the Ukraine is going poorly. U.S. influence in the Middle East is waning as the movement for national liberation is continuing to advance. The U.S. is determined to maintain its domination of the Pacific region, plundering the regions land, labor and natural resources. It is also attempting to block China’s development, and hinder reunification with Taiwan.

The environment

All of us understand that the state of the environment is an existential question that is of vital interest to communists and revolutionaries.

The FRSO program states, “Monopoly capitalism is killing our planet. The boundless drive for profit is a threat to our continued existence. Climate change is causing more extreme weather disasters around the globe, with the most severe falling on the peoples of Asia, Latin America, and Africa.”

The existence of imperialism gives class and national dimensions to environmental crisis. Droughts, for example, do not impact everyone equally. Those who make the homes around Wall Street don’t worry about them, they don’t have to. The same can not be said for poor farmers in the Philippines or what few farmers that are left in the U.S.

Given that the monopoly capitalists are responsible for creating the environmental crisis, they are incapable of solving it. Instead, they hypocritically point at the countries that are, or have been, oppressed by imperialism and that are trying to make progress in national development.

In the U.S., investment in “green” technologies has become a mechanism to transfer wealth to the largest corporations.

In the U.S. our organization has been active in building the fight for climate justice and it is our view that the environmental movement can play an important role in opposing monopoly capitalism.

Polarization

The decline of U.S. imperialism has been accompanied by political polarization and sharpening contradictions in the camp of the enemy. The great uprising that followed the murder of George Floyd helped reshape the political landscape. The standard of living for the people of the U.S. is falling. The U.S.-backed genocide Gaza has brought millions of people into the streets.

Monopoly capitalism is a failed and dying system. Nothing – not industrial policy, increased contention with other centers of capital, or new wars are going to save it. Crises are a built-in feature of capitalism that express, in a way that words cannot, the overall weakness of an irrational system.

It is the task of communists to lead the fight that will bring this system to an end. To do this we need to start where people are at and recognize their felt need. By doing so we can continue to build mass movements and expand the strength of the mass organizations. And most importantly, we can win the advanced, the most active, to Marxism-Leninism and build a new communist party.

The outstanding revolutionary Mao Zedong once stated, “Historically, all reactionary forces on the verge of extinction invariably conduct a last desperate struggle against the revolutionary forces, and some revolutionaries are apt to be deluded for a time by this phenomenon of outward strength but inner weakness failing to grasp the essential fact that the enemy is nearing extinction while they themselves are approaching victory.”

It is like the great revolutionary Mao Zedong wrote, “U.S. imperialism is paper tiger.” It is dangerous. It should not be underestimated. But at the end of day, it can and will be defeated.

Long live the unity of the world’s peoples!

Long live proletarian internationalism!

In the words of Marx, “We have a world to win.”

#RevolutionaryTheory #FRSO #Statement #CapitalismAndEconomy #EconomicCrisis #Imperialism

Tampa is among the cities facing the worst of the national housing crisis. Tampa ranks ninth worst in the world for decrease in housing affordability. Renters in the city spend 42% of their income on housing, a 6% increase from 2017 during a time of rising inflation and stagnant wages. In 2022, affordable housing listings decreased by 46% while housing prices increased by 26%. More people in Tampa are at risk of losing their housing.

As the housing crisis worsens, community groups have united to demand housing for all. People’s Council Tampa, a coalition of Tampa activists and concerned residents, was launched on January 5 to stop rent increases and evictions. People’s Council Tampa and many community groups demanded that the Tampa city council pass a Tenants Bill of Rights. Later, they demanded the city also declare a “housing state of emergency”, which would help pave the way for a rent control ordinance.

The Tampa city council had its first reading of a Tenants Bill of Rights on January 13, with a majority of council members in support (6-1). The bill contained anti-discrimination measures and required giving tenants a list of resources. At the second reading on February 3, many council members flipped their vote to be against the bill of rights (4-2) after emails from local landlords and lawyers. The backlash against the council’s rejection of the Tenants Bill of Rights was strong enough for the city council to flip again, and they voted in favor unanimously on February 17.

Seeing the efficacy of public support, People’s Council Tampa and a dozen other groups agreed to mobilize to the next city council meeting on February 24 and demand Tampa declare a “housing state of emergency.” Over 100 people attended, with 50 speaking on the need for rent control to stop the housing crisis. While the city council did accept there was a “crisis” at that meeting, members rejected the idea of a rent control ordinance.

Although the fight to pass a rent control ordinance was not over, more issues with the city council emerged. Councilman John Dingfelder resigned in March as part of a public records lawsuit. Weeks later, Council Chair Orlando Gudes faced a hostile work environment lawsuit and immediate pressure from Mayor Jane Castor to resign. Gudes stepped down as council chair in response but is still a council member – for now. Mayor Castor’s administration is in charge of prosecution in both lawsuits. In Gudes’ case, the Castor administration was aware of the allegations in 2020 but did not pursue legal action until the end of 2021. Castor’s administration also revealed the accuser’s identifying information in a statement about the case. Both lawsuits have increased hostility between the mayor and city council.

Another part of this division is Mayor Castor’s public and firm rejection of rent control, a contrast to city council’s more receptive stance. The Coincidentally, Castor receives a large part of her PAC funds from landlords and developers. While Tampa city council at first voted against the Tenants Bill of Rights after landlords objected, they did pass the bill weeks later.

Despite Mayor Castor’s anti-rent control stance and city council controversy, a rent control ordinance is still possible. To replace Dingfelder, city council chose Amanda Lynn Hurtak, who has stated that her main concern is addressing the housing crisis. City councilmembers like Gudes have voiced support for rent control in the past. If five members of the city council vote in favor of rent control, the ordinance would automatically pass with the mayor unable to veto it.

The Tampa community is responsible for the Tenants Bill of Rights and an ordinance requiring six months’ notice for rent increases, although these are concessions from city council instead of the main demand of rent control. These concessions are not a sign to give up on solving the housing crisis, but encouragement to work even harder. Tampa city council can pass a rent control ordinance with enough community support.

Freedom Road Socialist Organization’s May Day Rally for Housing is part of this struggle to get housing for all. As midterm elections approach, protesting for an end to the housing crisis with rent control is necessary to build massive public support. If a large part of the Tampa community demands rent control and nothing less, the Tampa city council would have no choice but to act.

#TampaFL #EconomicCrisis #HousingStruggles #tenantsRights

San José, CA – On Friday, January 14, the U.S. Department of Commerce reported that retail sales dropped 1.9% in December 2021. This number was called “terrible” by economists, who expected a very slight drop of 0.1%. Since the retail sales report is not adjusted for inflation, sales discounting higher prices fell almost 2.5%.

Many news reports tried to blame the new Omicron variant of COVID-19, which began to surge in the United States in December. But online sales, which usually go up when people don’t want to shop in stores because of the pandemic, fell a much sharper 8.7% in December, more than four times the overall drop in sales. Restaurants and bars, which do worse when people stay home, only fell 0.8%, or half the average drop in sales.

More likely is that the surge of sales in 2021 has begun to fade. Even including the December drop, retail sales at the end of 2021 were almost 17% higher than the end of 2020. This reflected the trillions of dollars in federal government monies to fight the recession of 2020. But this aid has ended piece by piece. The last relief checks went out early in 2021. The federal eviction moratorium ended in August. Expanded unemployment insurance benefits ended in September.

With last expanded federal Child Tax Credit payments going out in December, only the federal student loan moratorium remains. State and local government budgets are starting to go into the red, so cuts will start to be more frequent this year. This trend towards more government austerity, combined with the Federal Reserve Bank’s commitment to start raising interest rates as soon as March, will put two brakes on the economy.

While the economy surprised many by bouncing back from the recession in 2020 and 2021, it is more likely to surprise to the downside in 2022. One sign of growing negative economic views of the future among wealthy investors is that the stock market began the year with back-to-back weekly drops.

#SanJoséCA #EconomicCrisis #PeoplesStruggles #Omicron