The outcome defied the prediction from many commentators that a conservative “red wave” would sweep the Republicans into power in both chambers of congress. This prediction was based on the historical trend that the party holding the presidency performs poorly in the midterms and the assumption that voters would blame the Democrats for inflation, which is at a 40-year high. Mass outrage at the reversal of Roe v. Wade helped to counterbalance these factors.

Polarization and the decline of monopoly capitalism

The mainstream, corporate centrist Democratic interpretation of all this is that the 2022 midterms have closed the door on the dark days of Trump's influence, that the reactionary tide has crested, and the country's political life will return to the moderate status quo.

However, we hold a different view. Elections are only one arena of struggle, and we should not base our analysis on election results.

U.S. imperialism is in decline, and because of this, we will continue to see sharpening polarization of society. However, as this election shows, things do not always proceed in a linear fashion.

We are still in a period of large-scale political radicalization. The George Floyd uprising of 2020 brought 26 million people into the streets for Black liberation, while less than a year later reactionaries stormed the U.S. capitol on January 6, 2021. With the coup attempt, denial of the 2020 presidential election results, and the overturning of Roe v. Wade, the right wing may have overplayed its hand, leading voters to turn away from them in the 2022 midterms.

We are increasingly seeing the establishment of two separate legal frameworks in one country, where basic democratic rights such as reproductive freedom are radically different depending on what state you are in. Voter suppression measures, most notably in the U.S. South but also in more conservative states in the Midwest and mountain regions, aim to limit the democratic rights of nationally oppressed people, such as African Americans and Chicanos. There are also economic differences emerging due to many politically conservative states not expanding Medicaid, leading to large numbers of uninsured people. These are not indicators of long-term political stability.

Trump and a dangerous Democratic Party strategy

Donald Trump endorsed around 300 candidates in the 2022 midterms, many of whom hold the view that the 2020 presidential election was illegitimate. The results were mixed. In competitive races, Trump's candidates performed poorly. In races where voter support for the Republican candidate was strong, they performed better. This, along with the fact that so many of his preferred candidates won their primaries, indicates that Trump's influence over the Republican party and its core base remains strong, while his appeal to independent voters has diminished.

Democratic groups spent around $19 million in Republican primaries donating to the most far-right candidates, who they saw as easier to defeat in the general elections. This cynical gambit shows that the Democrats are willing to risk the most reactionary politicians being once step closer to holding real power, in exchange for the potential for a predicted election boost. Many democrats hold this view about Trump himself, that he would be the most defeatable Republican in the 2024 presidential election. This is an incredibly dangerous strategy.

On November 15, Trump announced that he would run for president in 2024. Reactionary Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is another possible Republican candidate. We must oppose the extreme right, regardless of whether it is Trump or someone like him.

While the DNC dumped money into Trumpist Republicans, they continued their efforts to sideline progressive, Bernie Sanders-oriented Democratic candidates in favor of corporate centrists.

Looking forward

The Biden administration failed to deliver on policies that benefit working people even when the Democrats held both the House and Senate. On vital issues of foreign policy, such as how to interact with the People's Republic of China, the two parties have similar views. Now that Congress is split between the two capitalist parties, it is even more unlikely that much will happen. We believe that real change comes from mass movements of working and oppressed people, and that is where we will be putting our energy.

The Supreme Court will continue to be a leading edge of reaction in 2023. The Supreme Court will decide on the constitutionality of affirmative action that will affect college admissions and company hiring. The court may also consider the legality of the Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals or DACA which allows people who were brought to the United States as children without proper authorization to stay, work, and go to school. The state of Texas is also challenging the constitutionality of the Indian Child Welfare Act which would weaken Native sovereignty and hurt Native families.

Conditions for building the people’s movements are favorable. More and more people are terrified of living under reactionary Republican rule and dissatisfied with the Wall Street centrism of the Democrats. We will continue to fight to build the trade union movement and the struggle for national liberation of Black people, Chicanos and all nationally oppressed people. We will continue to fight for women's and reproductive rights and to organize against the attacks on LGBTQ people that are mounting across the country.

Most importantly, Freedom Road Socialist Organization will continue to build a revolutionary organization capable of uniting all who can be united to wage a decisive struggle against monopoly capitalism, and to build socialism.

#UnitedStates #Elections #midtermElections2022

The past has shown that the stance we take on elections can either prepare us for future struggles or leave us on the sidelines of history. There are four major questions we can ask about elections. Is there a special danger present? Is the election a referendum of sort on a key issue – such as a war or economic crisis? Is the election important to the oppressed nationality movements and the struggle against national oppression? Is there a significant political option besides the two parties of the ruling class, the Republicans or Democrats?

Different forces may have different answers to those questions. Freedom Road Socialist Organization believes that this November, it is important to defeat the most reactionary and backwards candidates whether they are running for the House or Senate, for governor or for local office.

There are several criteria we can use during the upcoming elections to determine who the most backwards candidates are. Politicians running for office have different stances on democratic struggles like reproductive rights, voting rights, the police and the crimes they commit in oppressed communities, policies on immigration and other important issues.

We must defeat any politicians running for office this November who hold a favorable view of Trump. It is likely that the Republican candidate for president in 2024 will be someone like or very similar to Trump and his terrible politics. Defeating reactionary politicians at the ballot box is also important because we want to see the most favorable conditions for organizing in the streets and in our workplaces after the elections.

We want the people’s movements to focus on winning demands and advancing struggles to new heights. We want to avoid a situation where people are led astray into thinking that the solution to our problems is replacing one ruling class politician for another. We can promote a real people’s agenda as we prepare to protest the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee in the summer of 2024. We will also demonstrate at the Democrat National Convention.

Our approach regarding the elections will take different forms in different places. Often, this will mean that those who are working in swing states must work to defeat Republican candidates. In places where the Republicans are very unlikely to win, organizers should vote against right-wing or centrist Democrats in favor of candidates with more progressive stances. Elections do matter and it would be a mistake to ignore them, even when both of the major parties represent the interests of the ruling class. Ultimately, Freedom Road Socialist Organization believes that our hope belongs with the people’s struggles and real change will be won on the streets.

The United States has seen a high level of political struggle this past decade. Many have been drawn into the streets for the first time, and that is wonderful. It is our duty to continue fighting for peace, justice and equality. In the final analysis, both the Republican and Democrat parties serve the 1%. Neither of those parties represent the interests of working and oppressed people. This November, let’s defeat the worst enemies on the ballot and continue our work among the people.

Struggles and organizations are blossoming, and we have a world to win. We are building revolutionary organization and understand that only a revolution and socialism can bring about a new world.

#UnitedStates #Elections #Editorials #FreedomRoadSocialistOrganizationFRSO #DonaldTrump #midtermElections2022